I wrote the article below, Why Ukraine will endure, on 27 Feb 2022, shortly after the Russians invaded Ukraine. I did not publish it at the time, though I don’t remember why. While in Kyiv last month, I told Dr. Rick Perhai and others from Kyiv Theological Seminary about the article, and he asked to see a copy. I knew that I had written the piece, but forgot that it was never actually published. So, I couldn’t find it on the MDHI website. Going through my hard drive archives today, while looking for something else, I found the lost article.

On one hand, I have been proven right. Against all odds, Ukraine has endured. Despite the emigration of Ukrainians, many stayed behind to defend their homeland. On the other hand, I did not foresee the momentous changes in warfare occasioned by this conflict. Drones and electronic warfare have revolutionized combat. Ukraine has proven itself masterful at using everything in its arsenal, and more importantly, in its people’s imaginations, to stop the Russian onslaught.

Diplomatically, sanctions have not been as effective as hoped, but then again, sanctions never are. China, North Korea, and India are providing Russia with more than token support. Putin still believes that he is winning and still refuses to negotiate in good faith for peace.

So, for my friends in Ukraine, I have now found the article that I told you about. Happy reading!

By Mark D. Harris, MD, MPH, MBA, MDiv, ThM, PhD, DBA.

Why Ukraine will endure

In this classic David vs. Goliath fight, Ukraine will endure against the powerful Russian bear…as long as they keep fighting.

In the early morning of 24 February, Moscow time, Russian land, air, and sea forces from Byelorussia, Crimea, and Donetsk attacked Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine were united with Kazakhstan and other states in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). Existing since the Bolsheviks overthrew Czar Nicholas II in 1917, the USSR defeated Germany on the Eastern Front in World War II, invaded Hungary and Czechoslovakia, and stood against the Western World in the Cold War. The fall of the USSR in 1991 splintered the former allies and ushered in a political disaster for Russia.

In the war between Russia and Ukraine, Russia possesses major advantages. Russia is the largest country in the world at 6.6 million square miles, about 1/8^th of the world’s land mass, and has a population of 146 million. According to the 2022 military strength ranking from Global Firepower, Russia is behind only the United States in military power, having 1.35 million personnel, 4100 aircraft, and 605 naval vessels.[1] Its per capita gross domestic product is $11,300. Ukraine, by contrast, extends over 233,000 square miles and has a population of 44 million. According to the 2022 military strength ranking from Global Firepower, Ukraine ranks 23 out of 140 nations surveyed. It has 500,000 total military personnel, 318 aircraft, and 38 naval vessels.[2] Its per capita gross domestic product is $3,727.

If Russia has so many advantages, why will Ukraine endure?

Ukraine is fighting on interior lines.

Russian forces have to travel over a huge area to get from one location to another. If Ukrainians want to move forces from Kharkiv to Kyiv, they must traverse 301 miles. If Russians wish to move forces from Gomel (opposite Kyiv) to Belgorod (opposite Kharkiv), they must move 380 miles. Simple geography means that the Russians face more troubles supplying and reinforcing their armies than the Ukrainians do. The Ukrainians can also use the Dnieper River for north-south movement.

Ukraine is fighting a defensive war.

Defenders have the advantages of knowing the terrain, building fortifications and entrenchments, bore sighting weapons, and setting traps for their assailants. They possess structures such as buildings, have established communication and transportation systems, and can selectively destroy anything necessary to impede the enemy. Traditional military doctrine suggests that attackers need a five-to-one advantage in total combat power to overcome the inherent strengths of the defense. The Russians do not have this, unless they use their nuclear arsenal.

Ukraine is stronger than it appears in many aspects of power.

Military and political planners evaluate diplomatic, informational, military, and economic power in what is called a DIME Analysis. In this conflict, while Russia holds the clear military advantage, Ukraine is stronger diplomatically, informationally, and economically due to support from other states. For example, though Ukraine’s economy is smaller than Russia’s, Ukraine has a virtually limitless stream of equipment, supplies, and money from Europe, the United States, and others. Russia is not likely to be able to interdict these resources, and enjoys only tepid support from China and a few other weak states.

Ukraine has long experience fighting Russia.

Since Putin annexed the region around Donetsk and the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, Ukrainians have been fighting Russians. They know the capabilities of Russian equipment, the training of Russian soldiers, and the practices of their commanders. Ukraine has built its military power in ways that offset Russian superiority. For example, the Ukrainians cannot match the Kremlin in the air but have installed a first-rate air defense system which is costing the Russian air force dearly. In another example, Russian ground forces lack equipment and training for night operations, a limitation that allows the Ukrainians to anticipate Russian moves.

Ukraine has only to survive, while Russia has to win.

Ukraine’s greatest asset is that it only has to keep fighting. Russia has to conquer cities, destroy armies, install a new government, and move many, if not most, of its forces back to Russia to deal with other threats in its vast territory. After the Germans conquered Ukraine in 1941, the Ukrainians launched a deadly partisan war, which hobbled Nazi power in the country. Even if Russia overran Ukraine, a prolonged guerrilla war would deplete Russian power, sap Russian morale, and ensure eventual victory.

Conclusion

In the long run, and perhaps in the short run as well, Ukraine will endure. This is only true so long as the Ukrainian people resist. No number of physical advantages can ensure victory, or even survival, in a people who lack the will to fight. Napoleon said, “In war, the moral is to the physical and three is to one.” America won militarily in Iraq and in Afghanistan, but lost politically, because these wars should never have been fought in the first place. Russia will likewise discover that it erred in marching into Ukraine and will bring its boys home. Sadly, there will be many fewer of them.