Defending Taiwan

The world in 2025 is a bigger geopolitical mess than it was in 1914. Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel are developed states at the epicenter of life-or-death struggles.[1] After a recent visit to Taiwan, this article describes a way, and quite probably the only way, for Taiwan to survive as an independent nation if China invades.

By Mark D. Harris, MD, MPH, MBA, MDiv, ThM, PhD, DBA

Chiang Kai Shek (1887-1975) fled mainland China and moved his nationalists, the Kuomintang (KMT), to Taiwan after their defeat by the communists under Mao Tse Dung (1893-1976) in 1949. Since that year, the Communists ruling mainland China have declared that Taiwan is a renegade province and they will take it back by any means possible, including war.[2] Every modern Chinese ruler, including the current autocrat Xi Jin Ping, has reaffirmed this intention.[3]

A pre-invasion scenario

Chinese paramilitary “fishing boats”, coast guard ships, and naval vessels encircle Taiwan under the guise of military exercises, law enforcement, or humanitarian actions. These boats partially disrupt Taiwanese imports and exports. Then they leave, having learned valuable lessons and helped lull Taiwanese defenders and politicians into a sleepy acquiescence, like a frog in warming water. Chinese aircraft from bases such as Longtian (in Fujian) harass Taiwanese responding forces. Cyber attackers, space forces, special forces, and others engage. Much of this is happening today. By not firing the first shot, the Chinese undercut nations that may oppose them. If no one physically challenged the blockade, Taiwan would slowly be strangled to death.

On the day of the invasion, Taiwan finds itself completely cut off from the outside world, except through space-based communication like Starlink. Undersea cables, the source of almost all external Taiwanese internet, are cut. Broadcast bandwidth is jammed. A huge missile attack begins on Kinmen (Quemoy, an outlying island only a few miles from the mainland), and simultaneously on the main island.[4] Military targets such as bases, airfields, and ports are destroyed. Civilian targets such as railheads, water facilities, communication nodes, and power stations are hit. Chinese bombers strike. A primary Chinese objective is to complete the takeover of Taiwan before significant help from allies, especially the US, could arrive.

The missile barrage and air strikes last several hours as Chinese naval, coast guard, and “fishing” vessels approach the island. Air assault and airborne troops (PLA Air Force (PLAAF) Airborne Corps) capture their targets at dawn on D-Day. Chinese roll-on-roll-off (RO-RO) ships dash into freshly captured Taiwanese ports to disembark troops and heavy equipment. Shallow waters slow the attack in the west, and cliffs slow any attack in the east. China could use tactical nuclear weapons. The main invasion point is the beaches around Taipei, the Taiwanese capital. China’s primary objectives are:

Taipei International Airport
Songshan Military Airport and the nearby Taiwanese government district
Keelung port facilities
Taipei port facilities
Taipei railhead facilities
Military facilities

Once at the beaches and ports, China disembarks 100,000 troops over three days. Objectives outside Taipei include:

Port of Kaohsiung – southwest portion of Taiwan
Port of Anping – southwest portion of Taiwan
Military facilities

Taipei has two rivers that pass through its midst, the Tamsui and the Keelung. Much like the Ottomans used the Danube to strike deeply into Eastern Europe, Chinese Marines and special forces use these rivers to strike deeply into Taipei. The urban and surrounding mountainous terrain favor the Taiwanese defenders but the flat country favor the Chinese invaders.

Another possibility is a Chinese attack at Fangliao Beach, which is in the more lightly defended southwestern Taiwan and near the Pingtung airbase and Kaohsiung port. The Chinese could more easily gain a foothold but then would have to fight their way up the island through rugged mountain terrain. The battle would resemble the Allied Italy campaign in World War II…very slow and very bloody. If Taiwan had allies such as Japan and the US, the Chinese would have suffered huge naval losses. A southern invasion would ultimately fail.

Despite the rugged terrain, the eastern side of the island has the Chiashan Air Base. The Bashi Channel to the south between Taiwan and Luzon (Philippines) will be a major naval thoroughfare and could see the Philippine air and naval forces attacking Chinese vessels.

If the US got involved, we would move carrier groups and land-based aircraft toward Taiwan. They would engage early but be at risk from Chinese missiles, aircraft, and naval vessels. How quickly we moved ground forces would depend on how successful the air and sea warfare proved to be.

The current situation

China’s population is 1.4 billion people, 58 times that of Taiwan, which is home to 24 million people. Over 70% are Han Chinese. Mandarin is the official language, and the people are 35% Buddhist and 33% Taoist.[5] Christians comprise 3.9% of Taiwanese. Taiwan is 80% urbanized, with most people living in multi-family dwellings, and ¼ of the population living in Taipei. With fertility rates of 0.9 and 1.0 respectively, Taiwan and China are losing their population.[6] In the long run, their power will decline.

Taiwan is a mountainous island 95 nautical miles from the Fujian province in southeastern China. Taiwan’s area is 36,000 sq km, about the size of Maryland and Delaware combined. Mountains and woodlands or jungles cover the central and eastern two-thirds of the island. The western one-third is rolling hills, plains, and cities.

The Taiwan Strait divides the island of Taiwan from the mainland. It is about 90 miles wide and 330 feet deep. The last mile of the strait on the shores of Taiwan is only 48 feet deep, which is too shallow for deep-drafted naval vessels. Typhoon season is May to October and high winds, deep swells, and storms are common. April and November are the most practical times for a cross-channel amphibious invasion. The original divine wind (kamikaze) that destroyed the Mongol fleets in the autumn of 1274 and 1281, thus saving Japan, occurred north of the Taiwan Strait.

China has a per capita gross domestic product of $22,100, compared to $47,800 for Taiwan.[7] Neither Taiwan nor China can feed itself, the former having a food self-sufficiency ratio of 31% and the latter of 74%.[8] Fossil fuels provide 97.7% of all power consumed by Taiwan, and most of that is imported.[9] By contrast, 86% of China’s energy is powered by fossil fuels. Taiwan has reserves of twelve months (food), five months (oil), one month (coal) and two weeks (natural gas). Taiwan’s prime company is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which produces and sells 90% of the most advanced computer chips in the world.

As the Chinese economy has modernized and developed, so has its military size and strength. Today, China boasts the largest navy in the world. China has two million people in uniform while Taiwan has 215,000.[10] China spends $267 billion on its defense budget compared to Taiwan’s 19.7 billion.

Item	China	Taiwan
Total military aircraft	3300	761
Tanks	6800	888
Self-Propelled artillery	3490	488
Fleet	754	97
Submarines	61	4

The Chinese navy, the “People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), has grown and modernized. Brand-new Chinese ships, bridge barges, with legs to stabilize them in the water extend bridges up to 393 feet to cross soft sand and discharge infantry and tanks on firm ground. An open platform at the back of the bridge ship allows RORO ships to connect and discharge their cargo of tanks and other vehicles through the bridge ship and onto the shore.[11] The new Chinese aircraft carriers carry air combat power wherever needed.

China, however, does not rely only on its official navy. The Chinese began upgrading their fishing fleet in 2012. The government subsidized fishermen to upgrade from small, wooden boats to large, steel ships, called “backbone boats.” Large engines, advanced refrigeration units, and a vastly increased range were mandatory.[12] Owners and operators were required to place themselves under government control to act as maritime militia at any time. Photographing and “sharing secrets” of the ships were strictly prohibited. China has at least 4,600 distant water and perhaps 864,000 coastal water fishing boats.[13] The Chinese militia has played a major role in the Chinese acquisition of the Paracel Islands and partial acquisition of the Spratley Islands. The militia conflicts with the Philippine navy in Scarborough Shoal, and with Japan in the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. By having militia do it, the official Chinese Navy and Coast Guard never have to get involved.

China is actively planning to destroy Starlink. Taiwan is developing its own low-earth orbit (LEO) equivalent to keep communications.[14]

Will the Taiwanese fight?

Simply comparing the numbers makes it look like a Chinese victory is inevitable…you almost wonder why China has waited so long. Most Taiwanese and most mainland Chinese are Han and speak Mandarin.

A more crucial question is morale. If China invades Taiwan, will the Taiwanese fight? Twelve percent of Taiwanese support reunification with China. My recent journeys in Taiwan and discussions with residents there suggest that two camps exist. The first, mainly older people whose parents or grandparents came to Taiwan in 1949, probably would not fight. The second group, primarily younger and more diverse ethnically and religiously, say that they would fight. Younger and middle-aged Taiwanese are pushing for independence, about 48% of the voters.[15] Chinese heavy-handedness in the South China Sea and refusal to maintain freedom in Macao and Hong Kong has left a bitter taste for many Taiwanese.

Another question mark involves Taiwan’s cultural diversity. Religious diversity (Buddhism, Taoism, Christianity, and secular humanism) may make its people less willing to fight. It is one thing for a person in a wealthy country at peace to say they would fight, and another thing entirely to actually fight. A great number of people to whom I spoke said that they would fight but that their fighting would be pointless. Without help from the outside, they believed that China would overrun them.

Allies?

China’s rise to power has made it more confident and belligerent. China has spent billions and loaned billions gaining access to and influence around the world with its Belt and Road Initiative. China has disregarded other nations and the United Nations in its drive to dominate the South China Sea.[16] China has excelled in gray-zone combat with the United States, from information stealing to cybercrime to espionage. Finally, China supported Russia’s genocidal attack on Ukraine.

In the process, China has damaged its reputation around the world. India opposes China. Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, and even places as far south as Indonesia are building their defenses – militarily, economically, and diplomatically. Despite Japan’s coy denials, Japan has become an important Asian military power. Sadly, these East Asian nations are also shrinking. With political will, proper intelligence, coordination, and leadership, an East Asian alliance could possibly stop a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Maybe.

What about the rest of the world? India is a rising economic and military power but it is too far from the conflict zone to intervene much. Further, India will not be able to sustain their rise demographically if they do not increase their fertility rate from 2.1 to greater than 2.2 per person.[17] Russia is declining demographically and economically but due to its physical size, natural resources, and nuclear weapons, Russia is still potent. Europe has castrated itself socially and militarily, and it remains to be seen if it takes global threats seriously. Latin America and Africa would struggle to meaningfully intervene.

The United States is the sole world superpower. America could stop a Chinese attack on Taiwan. If we entered the war, many other nations would also. If we did not, they most likely would not. The question is “What will the United States do? Most Taiwanese with whom I spoke said that they trusted the US in the past to help them. Such is no longer the case. The swirling US messaging around and about Ukraine has not produced confidence in our allies that America will be there for them.

What to do in the short term

Diplomacy

Purchasing expensive and complicated weapons systems is only a part of what Taiwan needs to do to survive. Coordinating with allies is vital, especially Japan and the US. Though Taiwan is only recognized as an independent state by twelve nations,[18] it should be a friend, a generous friend, to every nation that is friendly or neutral to it. Taiwan is rich enough to be a lavish suitor to Southeast Asia, Southern Europe, Africa, Latin America, and the many island nations whose economies could use a little help. Economic development is also a constant goal.

A Home Guard

Most importantly, Taiwan’s people need to be mobilized to defend their country. Japanese Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto (1884-1943) is said to have said this when asked it Japan should invade the United States.

“You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.”

Yamamoto probably did not say these words. But he should have, for they are right. The power of an armed citizenry has been evident from the day American farmers smashed British and Hessian regulars, loyalists, and Indians at the Battle of Bennington (August 1777). Adolph Hitler (1889-1945) feared his own citizens, so he disarmed the German people in the Law for Disarmament of the People (1933) and the Weapons Act (1934).

In 2020, forty-four percent of Americans admitted to living in a household with at least one firearm.[19] Since the Left has made owning a gun in America politically incorrect, the real number is probably higher. The United States is the most heavily armed nation in the world, with 120 guns per 100 population, compared to 62.1 guns per 100 population in the second most heavily armed nation, the Falkland Islands.[20] China has 3.6 guns, India has 5.3 guns, Russia has 12.3 guns, and Germany has 19.6 guns for every 100 people. Taiwan has zero civilian firearms per 100 people, though guns are not banned.[21]

Establishing a Home Guard would immediately make Taiwan more difficult to conquer, and almost impossible to hold. A good Home Guard would increase the number of people fighting for Taiwan to at least ten million. Chinese People’s Liberation Army soldiers and Marines invading or garrisoning Taiwan could never rest.

Include every man in the country between the ages of 15 and 75. This would be mandatory.
Include women as needed, as willing, and as culturally appropriate.
Eight weeks of initial training including shooting, camouflage, first aid, physical fitness, guerilla warfare, mountain warfare, and basic military arts. Two weeks of refresher training annually would be adequate. Home Guardsmen could get more free training if they wished.
A rifle. A T91 which is consistent with the Taiwanese Army rifle would be optimal. Man-portable antitank and anti-aircraft weapons would be useful and widely dispersed among the population.
Home Guardsmen would not need extensive military training. Their mission would be to oppose their enemies and protect their homes, families, and communities.

Some may argue, “What use is a man with a rifle in these days of drones and missiles?” The answer, of course, is that home guardsmen (militiamen) do not fight in regular combat. They kill individual unsuspecting enemy soldiers, as Jael killed Sisera (Judges 4:17-19). They succor friendly soldiers and civilians. Home guardsmen ambush enemy columns. They disrupt food, fuel, and ammunition supplies to their enemies, and help their friends. They prepare defenses, both urban and rural, such as entrenchments, barricades, and camouflage nets. Enemies are still humans, with the same vulnerabilities as friends. Militia may not stop the invasion, but if they persist, home guardsmen (militias) guarantee their enemy’s eventual evacuation, as the Mujahadeen did in the 1980s and the Taliban did in the 2010s in Afghanistan.

The British used a Home Guard well in World War II. Though it is uncommon and politically incorrect today, having a large and well-trained Home Guard would help save Taiwan. It would also save Ukraine and other smaller nations fighting larger adversaries.

Even if the Taiwanese government refused to develop a formal home guard (militia), the Taiwanese people could. Though difficult and expensive, Taiwanese individuals and communities could legally acquire handguns, rifles (bolt action only allowed for hunting), and shotguns. Some training (weapons and military) is available on the Internet. If only 100,000 Taiwanese civilians in addition to the armed forces acquired and learned to use guns, the Chinese would have a much harder time conquering and occupying the island. The government could make it easier for communities to raise a militia, but establishing a home guard is best.

What to do in the long term?

To survive in perpetuity as a nation, Taiwan must implement profound social change. The government is not strong enough to do this and should not be. Freedom requires that the government be limited. Rather, an all-society approach is required.

Social change

If trends continue, Taiwan will fall to China because Taiwan will have no one left to fight. When the last Taiwanese woman draws her final breath, a Chinese soldier will walk with his cane from his fishing boat in the port of Keelung into the ghost town of Taipei and claim the island for China. This will happen shortly after the Taiwanese economy collapses due to insufficient people to make, sell, and buy goods and services. Of course, Taiwan is not the only nation that will suffer this fate. The whole world is on the same trajectory.

Taiwan must return to families composed of two people including one biological male and one biological female who are married to each other. They must have at least two children, with some having more. Abortion, except when the mother’s life is in danger, should be unthinkable. Such families are better for husbands, wives, children, and society as a whole. They are more peaceful and prosperous. Inequality falls. Crime declines and the economy grows. Such two-parent families are the standard in all successful and enduring societies for all of human history.

Limited Government

A culture in which individual and community responsibility, not governmental force, establishes and upholds societal norms, is a strong culture. Orwell’s Big Brother produces confused, passive people, who are much easier to oppress but much harder to lead. Confused, passive people don’t innovate, don’t risk, don’t reproduce, and don’t sacrifice. The best armies have decentralized leadership, like a strong corps of non-commissioned officers. The worst armies have generals controlling everything.

Living situations

High-density living spaces such as apartment buildings are dangerous in times of war. Residents are vulnerable to water, power, and food disruptions. Sewers back up, spreading disease. One missile can kill 500 people living in a high-rise, while it may take 50 equivalent missiles to kill 500 people in single-family homes. Many living in single-family homes with private property can plant gardens, build septic tanks, and dig wells. Some can harvest their own lumber to cook and heat with wood stoves. In less densely packed populations, communicable disease declines. Higher population density and greater residential instability in an area are associated with more violence in that area.[22] While space in Taiwan is limited, intentionally moving away from urbanization and high-density living will help Taiwan defend itself.

A strong society

China and Taiwan have a plurality of Buddhist citizens. This being true, they should recognize this story about what makes a strong society from the Digha Nikaya 16.

King Ajatasattu of Magada wanted to attack the Vaijans so he consulted the Buddha on whether or not he should expect success. The Sakyamuni spoke to his trusted helper, Ananda. Now the Venerable Ānanda was standing behind the Lord, fanning him.

And the Lord (Buddha) said: ‘Ānanda, have you heard that the Vajjians hold regular and frequent assemblies?’

‘I have heard, Lord, that they do.’

‘Ananda, as long as the Vajjians hold regular and frequent assemblies, they may be expected to prosper and not decline.’

Have you heard that the Vajjians meet in harmony, break up in harmony, and carry on their business in harmony?’

‘I have heard, Lord, that they do.’

‘Ananda, as long as the Vajjians meet in harmony, break up in harmony, and carry on their business in harmony, they may be expected to prosper and not decline. Have you heard that the Vajjians do not authorize what has not been authorized already, and do not abolish what has been authorized, but proceed according to what has been authorized by their ancient tradition?’

‘I have, Lord.’…

‘Have you heard that they honor, respect, revere and salute the elders among them, and consider them worth listening to?… that they do not forcibly abduct others’ wives and daughters and compel them to live with them?… that they honor, respect, revere and salute the Vajjian shrines at home and abroad, not withdrawing the proper support made and given before?… that proper provision is made for the safety of Arahants (religious leaders), so that such Arahants may come in future to live there, and those already there may dwell in comfort?’

‘I have, Lord.’

‘Ānanda, so long as such proper provision is made, the Vajjians may be expected to prosper and not decline.’

King Ajatasattu of Magada did not attack. Similar sentiments are expressed in the scriptures of Islam, Hinduism, Judaism, and Christianity. This is to be expected as such principles are universal. If Taiwan has a strong society like the Vajians did, they will succeed in the long run. Taiwan needs a strong society to defend itself.

Conclusion

Taiwan is facing what Ukraine is experiencing, an existential attack from a much larger enemy. Taiwan’s chances of winning by itself are small, and its hope of allies wavers from US administration to administration. In the event, it is not clear how hard Taiwan would fight. There is much that Taiwan can do to improve its chances of victory in the short term, including enhanced diplomacy, greater self-sufficiency in food and fuel, and a home guard (militia). In the long run, Taiwanese survival will depend on its willingness to change its society in substantial ways.