President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to stop the Russian war on Ukraine. While he possesses a strong personality, Trump’s personality alone is not likely to stop the T-80s from rolling into Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia. Stopping the war is a worthy goal, but Trump and his team need to ensure that they do not lose the peace. The following article illuminates how to get a fair deal.
By Mark D. Harris, MD, MPH, MBA, MDiv, ThM, PhD, DBA
Background
Ukraine is renowned for its fertile, black soil, and Ukrainian agriculture ranks among the most productive in the world. Fifty-five percent of Ukraine’s land is arable, mostly in the western and central regions, and 14% of Ukrainians work in agriculture.[1] Equally important, Ukraine has historically had several excellent ports on the Black Sea to safely and cheaply get its crops to market. These ports include Odessa, Chernomorsk, Yuzhny, Berdyansk, Mariupol, and Sevastopol.
Situated to the north and east, Russia lacks Ukraine’s vast swathes of rich farmland. For centuries, Russians moving to Ukraine to find a better life had few opportunities to settle in the western and central regions since native Ukrainians were there. The Donetsk and Luhansk regions along the Dnieper River in the east lacked such productive soil but, as the Industrial Revolution began in the 19th century, these regions had something even more valuable. Eastern Ukraine is flush with coal and iron and has a major river to move the coal and iron to market. In the late 19th and early to mid-20th centuries, Russian settlers flocked to these regions, together known as the Donbas. Nationwide, Ukrainians account for 77.8% of the people in the Ukraine and Russians account for 17.3%, but the Russian population percentage is much higher in the Donbas and in the Crimean Peninsula.[2]
Prelude to War
Putin had what he considered to be good reasons to attack Ukraine. He argued that the West had invaded Russia six times in the past two centuries, while Russia had not initiated hostilities against the West.[3] He cited NATO encroachment as a threat to Russia. Putin styled himself as a modern Russian savior along the lines of Peter the Great.
The 1994 Budapest Memoranda allowed for Ukrainian independence. Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States gave assurances (did not “guarantee”) to protect Ukraine’s borders. For its part, Ukraine had to relinquish the Soviet-era nuclear weapons that the USSR had stationed on its soil. In light of Russian aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2022, even former US President Bill Clinton, a signatory to the Budapest memoranda, has publicly doubted its worth. Ukrainians bitterly accuse the US of failing them both before and during this war.
The War
In launching his invasion on 24 Feb 2022, Putin hoped to seize the capital of Kyiv, install a friendly government, and dictate peace terms keeping Ukraine in a Russia-led economic sphere (including client states such as Armenia), keeping NATO and the European Union (EU) out, and giving Russia favorable trade. He failed. Russia’s inability to capture Kyiv in a lightning stroke forced Putin to shift his armies to the east and south. Ukraine refused to build forts, bunkers, minefields, and other defensive positions early which could have limited Russia’s gains. As underdogs, Ukraine needed the advantages of fortification. Ukraine’s situation grew worse with the dithering of Europe and America regarding aid and their refusal to let Ukraine use the full operational scope of weapons provided. President Biden should not have put restrictions on Ukrainian use of American weapons. At a heavy cost, Russia ground down Ukrainian defenses and captured much of the territory that it wanted. However, neither Russia nor Ukraine can sustain such high-intensity fighting forever.
The fighting will only stop once Putin agrees to it, and Putin will not stop fighting as long as he believes he is winning. If Russia (and North Korea) continue to advance into Ukraine, Putin has little to gain from a deal. Ukraine and the West must increase Russia’s pain to the point where the Russians want to stop fighting. America can increase Putin’s pain with sanctions, cyber-attacks, espionage, sabotage, and diplomatic isolation. US contractors with military experience already train the Ukrainian armed forces on sophisticated weapons systems. Western troops provide the ultimate credible threat and their use must be on the table. With allied help, Ukraine will stop the advance. Then Putin will talk.
The Cease-Fire
Ukraine has little chance in the short term of recapturing the Russian-occupied territories.[4] Ukraine needs a cease-fire and eventually a peace deal, but its current situation is grim. The permanent loss of Donetsk, Luhansk, and most of the land by the Black Sea would leave Ukraine as a rump, nearly landlocked state. The Ukrainian economy would shrivel, and the remaining country would struggle to survive.
Putin would like nothing more than a deal in which he gets to keep all the land he took in exchange for vague security assurances, which is all Ukraine got in 1994. He knows that Ukraine is unlikely to ever be accepted into NATO or the EU.[5] Putin will not relinquish territory gained at a steep cost in Russian blood and treasure, because he knows that the West will not fight him. Only a credible threat of direct Western military intervention will force Putin to give up something of value, like Black Sea ports. But no one in the West, not even Trump, has the stomach for sending US troops into battle in Ukraine.
The best option for America and Europe is to stop the fighting but leave the legal status of the occupied territories uncertain. We cannot legally give them to Russia and cannot realistically give them back to Ukraine. We can and should maintain sanctions until Russia withdraws from all occupied territories, including Crimea. We must strengthen Ukraine’s defenses so that Russia cannot conquer any more land. We must divest from Russian gas, oil, and other trade goods, treating them as the pariah that they have chosen to be. America will win the gray zone operations, such as propaganda and cyber warfare, that Russia is continually using against us. Putin will die, and a future Russian government should be more reasonable. A robust and growing population of Ukrainians will compel Russia to cooperate.
The Peace
Once Russia chooses to rejoin the community of nations as a responsible partner and withdraws its troops from Ukrainian territory, a real peace treaty, not just a cease-fire, can take hold. Russia is the largest country on earth and has a rich culture and history. Like all countries, Russia wants to be strong and to be perceived as strong. It has a powerful nuclear arsenal and is capable of much evil. Russia is also, however, capable of much good. It is for the Russians to choose, and for the rest of the world to treat them as they deserve based on their choice.
Ultimately, Ukrainian prosperity and even survival depend on the Ukrainians. Before the war, Ukraine was plagued with corruption and vexed by division. A nation that is weak within cannot be strong without.[6]
A Buddhist legend is revealing.[7] King Vedehiputta of Magada wanted to attack the neighboring kingdom of Vaijia. The king asked the Buddha, who had been a Sakya prince before his enlightenment, if he was likely to win this war. The Buddha questioned his disciple Ananda, who knew the Vaijans well. In so doing, he learned following about the Vaijans:
- They held regular and frequent assemblies.
- They met in harmony, broke up in harmony, and carried on their business in harmony.
- They acted according to what had been authorized by their ancient tradition.
- They honored, respected, revered, and saluted their elders.
- They did not forcibly abduct others’ wives and daughters.
- They made proper provision for the religious leaders among them.
- They honored, respected, revered, saluted, and supported their own culture.
In learning this, the Buddha replied to the emissary of King Vedehiputta of Magada. He said that the Vaijans would prosper and not decline. He further assured the king that Magada would not be able to conquer them. Only when nations do not act in this way would they become weak, stumble, and fall.
Conclusion
This Buddhist text is 2,500 years old, but the principles contained therein remain useful. If Ukraine is strong, as Vaija was, its enemies will not be able to conquer them. Ukraine, not Russia, is responsible for Ukraine’s future. The West is responsible for its own actions, good or ill, in helping this small country withstand the ravenous appetite of this consuming neighbor.
[1] https://fas.usda.gov/sites/default/files/2022-04/Ukraine-Factsheet-April2022.pdf.
[2] https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/ukraine/#people-and-society.
[3] Putin was warping history for his own purposes. The West invaded Russia as follows: Great Northern War with Sweden (1700-1721), France under Napoleon Bonaparte (1812), Britain and France (1853-1856), Germany (1914-1917), the US and Britain (1919), and Germany (1941-1945). However, Russia attacked the West in Poland (1939) and Finland (1940). Russia’s complicity in causing the other wars is debatable. This list does not include proxy wars such as in Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, Africa, and others. .
[4] In the long term, the Russian fertility rate (1.52) is higher than the Ukrainian fertility rate (1.22). Unless that changes, Ukraine will shrink even faster than Russia is. They will not be able to reclaim lost territory.
[5] Schengen, the free movement of anyone into any state in the EU, is deeply unpopular. Europe is already bristling at immigrants and will not allow more.
[6] The archaic meeting of “within” can be “inside.” Likewise “without” is “outside”. A nation that is weak inside cannot be strong outside.
[7] Digha Nikaya, Mahaparinibbana Sutta (72 1.1-1.5)
